Voter Transitions from Parliamentary Election 2019 to City Council Election 2020

In addition to the voter movements from the Vienna City Council election 2015 to the City Council elections 2020, SORA also examined those from the Parliamentary Elections 2019 to the City Council elections 2020 (NRW19 - GRW20).

The Social Democrats (SPÖ) can mobilize 84% of its voters of 2019, that is 188,000 votes. The SPÖ gains most of all from those who voted for the Greens in the Parliamentary Elections 2019: 21,000 Green voters of 2019 voted for the SPÖ in the Vienna Election. Also 16,000 ÖVP (Conservative Party) voters voted red this time, as welll as 38,000 non-voters, 12,000 FPÖ voters and 14,000 NEOS and 13,000 voters of other parties. 13,000 eligible voters who voted for the SPÖ in the Parliamentary elections stayed at home in the Vienna City Council elections, 5,000 chose one of the other parties. The SPÖ lost 7,000 votes of its voters in the 2019 National Council elections to the ÖVP,  4,000 to the Greens, 2,000 to the FPÖ (Freedom Party) and the NEOS each, as well as 1,000 to team of HC Strache.  

In comparison to the other parties, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) could convince the fewest of its voters of the Parliamentary election from 2019: 41% or 43,000 voters voted again for the Freedom Party in the City Council elections. The FPÖ suffered the greatest loss to the non-voters (25,000 votes) and to the team HC Strache, its former chairman (14,000 votes), followed by the SPÖ (12,000 votes). 5.000 former FPÖ Voters of 2019 decided in favor of one of the smaller parties, 4,000 voted vor the ÖVP and 1,000 for NEOS. At the same time, the FPÖ won 2,000 votes each from those who did not vote in 2019 and those who voted for the ÖVP and the SPÖ in 2019. In 2020, 1,000 voters each from the NEOS and the other parties of 2019 voted for the FPÖ.
 
The Greens are able to mobilize 89,000 votes, which is more than half of their 2019 voters (53%). The other half is divided as follows: 35,000 decided not to vote, 21,000 in favor of the SPÖ, 13,000 shifted to the other parties, 7,000 voted for the NEOS, 3,000 for the ÖVP and less than 1,000 for the FPÖ.
In contrast, 4,000 eligible voters who voted NEOS or SPÖ in the Parliamentary elections and 6,000 non-voters voted for the Greens in the 2020 City Council elections. 2,000 former ÖVP and other voters made the same decision.

The Conservative People's Party (ÖVP) was able to convince more than half of its voters (55% or 111,000 votes) of its merits in the 2019 Parliamentary elections, especially from former NEOS voters (11,000 votes). 7,000 votes come from the SPÖ, 6,000 from former non-voters and 4,000 from the Greens as well as 4,000 from the FPÖ. The ÖVP loses 64,000 of its 2019 voters to the non-voters and 16,000 to the SPÖ, as well as 6,000 to the NEOS, 2,000 to the Greens and FPÖ each and 1,000 each to the HC Strache team and to voters of other parties.

42% (34,000 votes) of the Liberal Party (NEOS) voters of 2019 chose the NEOS again this time. 14,000 voted for the SPÖ in this City Council Election, 16,000 did not vote at all and 11,000 chose the ÖVP. 4,000 NEOS voters of 2019 voted for the Greens, 1,000 each for the FPÖ and other parties.
The NEOS gained most of its votes from the Greens and the ÖVP: 7,000 res. 6,000 voters who voted for one of these parties in 2019 decided in favor of the NEOS in 2020. 2,000 former SPÖ voters and 1,000 former FPÖ voters, voters of other parties and non-voters each voted for NEOS.  

The team HC Strache, which is running for the election for the first time, comprises with 14,000 votes almost exclusively of voters who voted for the FPÖ in 2019. In addition, 6,000 former non-voters voted for Team HC this time, as well as 1,000 SPÖ, ÖVP, NEOS and voters of other parties each.

The lists BIER, LINKS and SÖZ are summarized in the voter transition analysis under "Other". They all together gained 13,000 votes from former Green voters, 8,000 eligible voters who voted for other parties in 2019 and 5,000 former SPÖ voters. 5,000 former non-voters and FPÖ voters as well as 1,000 former ÖVP and NEOS voters each voted for other parties.

The non-voters are the most stable group: 79% of the voters who stayed at home in 2019 also chose this option in 2020.