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Voter transition City Council 2015-City Council 2020
The SORA voter transition analysis, conducted for the Austrian Broadcasting Corporation (ORF), shows the voter movements based on the City Council elections in 2015.
In this election, the Social Democrats (SPÖ) can win back 72% of its 2015 voters. With 29,000 votes, the SPÖ was able to profit mainly from former FPÖ voters. 23,000 votes came from non-voters, 4,000 from the Greens, 3,000 from NEOS and 1,000 from the ÖVP in 2015.
With 39,000 votes, it suffers the greatest loss to non-voters, followed by 27,000 votes lost to the ÖVP. 11,000 former SPÖ voters chose the Greens this time, 6,000 voted for the NEOS and 5,000 for the other parties, and each 2,000 for the HC Strache team and the FPÖ.
The Freedom Party (FPÖ) can only mobilize 19% of its 2015 voters again.
Especially many of its 2015 voters did attend the elections this time (100,000 votes), and it lost another 49,000 votes to the ÖVP - more than they could mobilise from their own 2015 voters. The FPÖ also lost 29,000 votes to the SPÖ, and 16,000 FPÖ voters of 2015 voted for the former FPÖ-Chairman and his Party Team HC Strache. The FPÖ loses 8,000 votes to the other parties, 5,000 to NEOS and 1,000 to the Greens. 2,000 votes from former SPÖ voters were won by the FPÖ.
In this election, the Greens were able to convince two thirds (66%) of their 2015 voters. They won 16,000 votes from first-time voters and former non-voters, 11,000 votes from the SPÖ, 6,000 from the NEOS and 4,000 from the ÖVP. From the other parties the Greens receive 3,000 votes, from former FPÖ voters 1,000 votes.
The Greens lost most if its former voters to the nonvoters (12,000), as well as 9,000 votes to the NEOS. 8,000 to the other parties and 4,000 to the SPÖ.
This time the Conservative People's Party (ÖVP) mobilized three quarters (75%) of its voters again. It profited most from former voters of the FPÖ and won 49,000 votes from them. Furthermore, the ÖVP could convince 27,000 former SPÖ and 10,000 NEOS voters. Each 1,000 former Green and other Party's voters decided in favor of the ÖVP in 2020.
The ÖVP suffered losses mainly to the NEOS: 9,000 votes went from turquoise to pink, 4,000 to the Greens, 1,000 to the SPÖ. Another 4,000 former ÖVP voters did not vote, 1,000 voted for other parties.
The Liberals (NEOS) were able to convince 44% of the voters they first won in 2015. In 2020, 9,000 former Green and ÖVP voters each chose the NEOS, as well as 6,000 former SPÖ and 5,000 FPÖ voters. In addition, 2,000 former non-voters voted for the NEOS, so did 1,000 former other voters.
The NEOS lost most of their votes to the ÖVP: Every fifth of their voters in 2015 voted for turquoise in 2020 (10,000 votes), 6,000 voted for the Greens, 3,000 decided in favor of the SPÖ.
With 16,000 votes, the Team HC Strache with former FPÖ-Chairman HC Strache is composed almost exclusively of former FPÖ voters. In addition, 3,000 former non-voters voted for Team HC this time and 2,000 former SPÖ voters, 1,000 votes come from other parties.
The lists BIER, LINKS and SÖZ are summarized in the voter flow analysis under "Others". They received 8,000 votes each from former non-voters, green voters, from the FPÖ and the Others. 5,000 of the votes come from the SPÖ and 1,000 each from NEOS and ÖVP.