Methodology postal vote forecast

Every scientific forecast is based on the observance of trends and correlations in the past. Due to the increasing number of postal votes, the election card model is becoming more and more important in the context of forecasts. An additional challenge: The affinity for voting via postal vote of the individual parties changes over time.

Key indicator "Postal vote affinity"

SORA's postal vote forecast is based on the model of a central indicator: the number of postal votes received by a particular candidate or party after the Election Sunday in relation to the votes counted in the polls on Sunday ("ballot votes").