Wir heißen seit Dezember 2023
×

Die Seite www.foresight.at ist gerade im Aufbau. Diese Seite (sora.at) wird nicht mehr gewartet und im März 2024 vom Netz genommen.

State Election Salzburg

The Salzburg elections saw a landslide victory for the SPÖ (Social Democrats): By gaining an increase of 13.1% and thus obtaining 45.4% of the votes, the SPÖ has passed the ÖVP (People's Party) for the first time since 1945 and is now Salzburg´s number one. The ÖVP has experienced a slight decrease of 0.8% and holds at 37.9% of the votes. The FPÖ (Freedom Party) has suffered great losses: having decreased by 10.9%, they received 8.7%. And the Greens gained 2.6%, which provided them with 8% of the votes. The turnout amounted to 77%, which is an increase of 3% compared to 1999.

The main trends of this elections are:

  • the remarkably strong mobilising of SPÖ voters
  • the high gains for the SPÖ from all sides
  • the high losses of the FPÖ, especially to the SPÖ
  • the increased voter fluctuation with the Greens

Voter Transition Analysis

The victorious SPÖ attracted votes from all other parties, especially from the FPÖ (20,000 votes). Furthermore, 10,000 of their voters were former non-voters, whereas 5,000 came from the Greens and 8,000 from the ÖVP. These gains added to a very solid base: the SPÖ succeeded in mobilising 95% of their 1999 supporters. In absolute figures, the ÖVP gained votes: 9,000 former FPÖ voters and 3,000 former Green voters now settled for ÖVP instead. The ÖVP mobilised 6,000 former non-voters, but 5,000 former ÖVP voters abstented from voting this time. The fact that the ÖVP has experienced a percentage-wise loss in votes is due to a higher voter turnout. The FPÖ mobilised only a third of their 1999 voters. They lost 9,000 votes to the ÖVP, and more than twice as much, namely 20,000 votes, to the SPÖ. With 26%, the Greens show an even lower voter keeping rate than the FPÖ (33%): this is to say that three out of four 1999 Greens supporters did not vote for them this time. The Greens lost especially to the SPÖ (5,000 votes) and to the ÖVP (3,000 votes). The gains that the party experienced mainly derive from former LIF voters. In addition, the Greens mobilised 7,000 former non-voters and 3,000 former FPÖ voters. SORA assessment of voter transition from the 1999 states elections to the 2004 states elections:

Table 1: Vote flow at the state election Salzburg 2004, absolute in 1000 votes

 

ÖVP '04

SPÖ '04

FPÖ '04

Greens '04

Non voters '04

Total '99

ÖVP '99

85

8

2

1

5

101

SPÖ '99

1

80

1

1

2

85

FPÖ '99

9

20

17

3

3

51

Greens '99

3

5

1

4

1

14

Others '99

1

1

0

7

1

10

Non voters '99

6

10

4

7

77

104

In total '04

105

125

24

22

89

365

example: Of the 1999 ÖVP voters, 8,000 voted for the SPÖ, 2,000 for the FPÖ and 5,000 did not go to the polls, etc.

Table 2: Vote flow at the state election Salzburg 2004, in percent

 

ÖVP '04

SPÖ '04

FPÖ '04

Greens '04

Non voters '04

Total

ÖVP '99

84%

8%

2%

1%

5%

100%

SPÖ '99

1%

95%

1%

1%

2%

100%

FPÖ '99

17%

39%

33%

5%

5%

100%

Greens '99

23%

37%

5%

26%

10%

100%

Others '99

8%

9%

1%

71%

10%

100%

Non voters '99

6%

10%

4%

7%

74%

100%

example: Of the 1999 ÖVP voters, 84% remained loyal to the party, whereas 8% voted for the SPÖ and 2% for the FPÖ, etc.