National Election 2008
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Voter Transition Analysis
Data of the ORF/ISA/SORA election day survey show that the government lost mainly due to voter disappontment and protest. This is also reflected in voter transitions: 106.000 SPÖ voters and 116.000 ÖVP supporters abstained from the ballots in this election.
Protest vote against the government went to right-wing parties: The SPÖ lost mainly to the FPÖ (181.000) and less to the BZÖ (78.000). The ÖVP lost mainly to the BZÖ (152.000) and in second place to the FPÖ (88.000).
Tabelle 1: Voter transitions between the national elections 2006 and 2008 in thousands (based upon preliminary results including prognosis of absentee ballots)
SPÖ '08 | ÖVP '08 | Greens '08 | FPÖ '08 | BZÖ | Others. '08 | NV. '08 | Sum '06 | |
SPÖ '06 | 1279 | 30 | 28 | 181 | 78 | 42 | 106 | 1744 |
ÖVP '06 | 51 | 1187 | 38 | 88 | 152 | 69 | 116 | 1701 |
Greens '06 | 19 | 18 | 378 | 11 | 10 | 65 | 45 | 545 |
FPÖ '06 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 431 | 42 | 16 | 21 | 544 |
BZÖ '06 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 145 | 3 | 9 | 202 |
Others '06 | 21 | 3 | 19 | 60 | 33 | 53 | 14 | 203 |
NV | 28 | 19 | 38 | 61 | 63 | 50 | 1135 | 1393 |
Sum '08 | 1430 | 1270 | 510 | 857 | 523 | 298 | 1446 | 6333 |
Example: 1,279.000 SPÖ voters from 2006 voted again for the SPÖ in 2008, 30.000 voted for the ÖVP, 28.000 for the Greens, etc.
Tabelle 2: Voter transitions between the national elections 2006 and 2008 in percent
SPÖ '08 | ÖVP '08 | Grüne '08 | FPÖ '08 | BZÖ | Others '08 | NV | Sum '06 | |
SPÖ '06 | 73% | 2% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 100% |
ÖVP '06 | 3% | 70% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 7% | 100% |
Greens '06 | 4% | 3% | 69% | 2% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 100% |
FPÖ '06 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 79% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 100% |
BZÖ '06 | 4% | 3% | 2% | 13% | 72% | 2% | 5% | 100% |
Others | 11% | 2% | 9% | 29% | 16% | 26% | 7% | 100% |
NV | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 81% | 100% |
Exemple: 73% of the SPÖ voters from 2006 voted again for the SPÖ in 2008, 2% voted for the ÖVP, 2% for the Greens, etc..