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State Election Styria 2000

Voter transition from the elections of the Styrian state parliament in 1995 to the elections of the Styrian state parliament in 2000. Vote flow below 500 votes is not considered.

The election of the Styrian state parliament 2000 led to a strong gain in votes for the ÖVP (+11%) and massive losses of votes for the FPÖ (-4,7%). The SPÖ also lost votes (-3,6%) and the Greens gained a small amount of votes (+1,3%). With a minus of 2,7% the Liberals could not move into the state parliament.

Voter transition analysis

92% ÖVP voters of 1995 voted again for the ÖVP (People's Party). Beyond the ÖVP gained 30.000 votes from the FPÖ and 13.000 votes from the SPÖ, in return they lost only 7.000 votes to the FPÖ and 3.000 votes to the SPÖ.

Additionally the ÖVP benefited from the erosion of the Liberals. They gained 6.000 votes what complies with 20% Liberal voters of 1995. After all they lost only 9.000 votes to the non-voters.

The FPÖ (Freedom Party) had to accept massive losses of voters at the election of the Styrian state parliament.They lost half of their voters of 1995. 30.000 former FPÖ voters shifted to the ÖVP, what complies with 23% FPÖ voters of 1995. About 29.000 former FPÖ voters didn't go to the election this time.

The SPÖ (Social Democrats) lost votes too, but not as massive. First of all they failed to mobilise former SPÖ voters: 45.000 SPÖ voters of the election of the state parliament in 1995 didn't go to the election this time, so the SPÖ kept only 75% of its former voters. Further the SPÖ lost 13.000 votes to the ÖVP, from which in return they could only gain 3.000 voters.

Next to the ÖVP the Greens could gain votes, although not as many as expected. The Greens benefited mostly from the erosion of the Liberals from which they gained 9.000 votes (15%). Likewise the vote flow between the SPÖ and the Greens resulted in a surplus in 2.000 votes for the Greens, though the Greens also had to fight against low voter mobilization: more than one third (36%) of their voters of 1995 didn't go to the election this time.

The Styrian Liberals lost 85% of their electorate. Only 15% of the Liberal voters of 1995 voted for the Liberals again at this election. 30% former Liberal voters shifted to the Greens, 20% to the ÖVP. 29% of the Liberal voters of 1995 didn't go to the election of the Styrian state parliament.

None of the parties could mobilise non voters of 1995 to an appreciable extent.

At the evening of the election the Institute for Social Research and Analysis (SORA) calculated the following voter transitions for the ORF:

Table 1: Vote flow, absolute figures in 1000 votes

 

ÖVP '00

SPÖ '00

FPÖ '00

Greens '00

LIF '00

Others '00

Non-voters '00

Total '95

ÖVP '95

254

3

7

3

1

1

9

277

SPÖ '95

13

204

5

3

1

1

45

273

FPÖ '95

30

5

65

1

0

0

12

131

Greens '95

3

1

1

15

0

0

12

32

LIF '95

6

0

0

9

4

1

8

29

Others '95

3

1

1

6

0

2

6

17

Non voters '95

3

1

3

0

1

1

136

144

Total '00

312

215

82

37

7

7

245

 

E.g.: 254.000 ÖVP voters of 1995 voted again for the ÖVP, 3.000 for the SPÖ, 7.000 for the FPÖ,...

Table 2: Vote flow, figures in percent

 

ÖVP '00

SPÖ '00

FPÖ '00

Greens '00

LIF '00

Others '00

Non voters '00

Total '95

ÖVP '95

92

1

3

1

0

0

3

100

SPÖ '95

5

75

2

1

0

1

17

100

FPÖ '95

23

4

50

1

0

0

22

100

Greens '95

10

4

2

46

1

1

36

100

LIF '95

20

1

1

30

15

4

29

100

Others '95

17

3

7

37

1

8

33

100

Non voters. '95

2

1

2

0

0

1

94

100

E.g.: 92% of the ÖVP voters of 1995 voted again for the ÖVP, 1% for the SPÖ, 3% for the FPÖ,...