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State Election Carinthia

First place again for the FPÖ (Freedom Party) in the Carinthian state elections of 2004: they gained 42.5% of the votes, which means a slight growth of 0.4% in comparison to the 1999 results. The SPÖ (Social Democrats) won most gains: They reached 38.4% of the votes cast, and thus improved by 5.6%. The weakest performance in this election was the ÖVP´s (People's Party) as they lost 9.1% and are now down to 11.6% of the votes. This means that they will have to part from half of their mandates. The Greens won 6.7% of the votes, and will now be presented for the first time in the Carinthian state parliament. The voter turnout was 78,1%.

The main trends in this election are: 

  • the high losses of the ÖVP to the FPÖ
  • the distinct losses of the FPÖ to the SPÖ and to non-voters
  • a strong mobilising of SPÖ voters
  • a weak mobilising of ÖVP voters

Voter Transition Analysis

The highest voter transition in Carinthia is that of ÖVP voters to the Freedom Party (24,000 votes). The FPÖ in turn lost 12,000 votes to the SPÖ and 22,000 votes through abstention, however, they won over 5000 former SPÖ voters and 6000 former non-voters in return. The FPÖ gains from the ÖVP make up for their losses to the SPÖ and the non-voters section.

The SPÖ mobilised their voters the best: 83% of those who voted SPÖ in 1999 were back at the polls. Moreover, the SPÖ attracted most non-voters: 16,000 of those who abstented from the 1999 polls now voted SPÖ. However, there were also 10,000 SPÖ voters from 1999 who stayed at home this time. The SPÖ also lost 5,000 votes to the FPÖ, but their gains of 12,000 votes in total guaranteed them a markedly positive result.

The ÖVP has been this election´s clear loser with a loss of 24,000 votes to the FPÖ and 5000 votes each to the SPÖ and the Greens. A clear sign of how weak their voters mobilising capacity was is the fact that their voter keeping rate was 46% - which means that not even every second of the 1999 ÖVP voters remained loyal to the party.

The Greens were able to win 60% of the votes of "Listenverband Demokratie 99", the party ticket with which they had contested in the 1999 elections. They also gained former ÖVP votes (5000 votes), as well as votes from the FPÖ and the non-voters section (3000 each) and 2000 votes from the SPÖ.

Table 1: Vote flow at the state election Carinthia 2004, absolute in 1000 votes

 

FPÖ '04

SPÖ '04

ÖVP '04

Greens '04

Others '04

Non voters '04

Total '99

FPÖ '99

102

12

1

3

0

22

140

SPÖ '99

5

91

2

2

0

10

110

ÖVP '99

24

5

32

5

0

2

69

Demokratie '99

2

2

0

8

0

1

13

KPÖ '99

0

0

0

0

0

1

 

Non voters '99

6

16

2

3

1

64

92

Total '04

139

125

38

22

3

99

425

example: Of the 1999 FPÖ voters, 102,000 have remained loyal to their party in 2004, 12,000 voted SPÖ this time and 22,000 decided to abstent.

Table 2: Vote flow at the state election Carinthia 2004, in percent

 

FPÖ '04

SPÖ '04

ÖVP '04

Greens '04

Others '04

Non voters '04

Total

FPÖ '99

73%

8%

1%

2%

0%

16%

100%

SPÖ '99

4%

83%

2%

2%

0%

9%

100%

ÖVP '99

35%

7%

46%

8%

1%

3%

100%

Demokratie '99

12%

17%

2%

60%

2%

5%

100%

KPÖ '99

8%

8%

8%

31%

30%

15%

100%

Non voters '99

7%

18%

3%

3%

1%

69%

100%

example: Of the 1999 FPÖ voters, 73% voted Freedom Party again, whereas 8% settled for the SPÖ and 1% for the ÖVP etc.