Viennese Local Council 2005

  • Having been predicted absolute majority in the opinion polls, the SPÖ experienced difficulties in mobilising their voters: they lost 76,000 voters by abstention. Their voter transition with the FPÖ gives them a positive balance, but they lost more votes to the ÖVP and the Greens than they could obtain from them.
  • The FPÖ lost almost a fifth of their voters (27,000) to the SPÖ and even more by abstention (29,000). 
  • The ÖVP experienced intensive voter transition with the SPÖ: while they lost 23,000 votes to the social democrats, they managed to gain 27,000 votes in return. 
  • The Greens, with 78%, have the highest retain rate.

Voter Transition Analysis

The SPÖ loses especially to the non-voters: 76,000 of their voters from 2001 decided to abstain in the 2005 municipal elections. In turn, they attracted 23,000 former non-voters. The SPÖ gained most votes from the FPÖ: while they lost only 7,000 votes to the Freedom Party, they received the votes of 27,000 former FPÖ supporters. In their voter transition with the ÖVP, the SPÖ has a negative balance of 4,000, and to the Greens they lost 2,000 votes more than they could obtain from them. The ÖVP managed to keep two thirds of their 2001 supporters (81,000 votes). 23,000 former ÖVP voters decided to cast their vote for the SPÖ instead this time. Whereas they lost 7,000 supporters to the Freedom Party, they received 12,000 votes in return from that party. Another 5,000 each were lost to the Greens and the non-voters. The FPÖ lost almost a fifth of their supporters to each the non-voters (29,000) and the SPÖ (27,000). While they lost 12,000 voters to the ÖVP, they could only attract 7,000 former ÖVP voters. Half of their 2001 supporters also gave them their vote in 2005, and only 2% (3,000 voters) were lost to the BZÖ. The Greens' main losses went to the non-voters (14% or 13,000 votes). Their high retain rate of 78% and gains from all other parties and the 2001 non-voters provided them with an overall positive balance. They gained most votes from the SPÖ and the non-voters (7,000 votes from each group). The following voter transitions from the 2005 municipal elections were calculated by SORA Institute for Social Research and Analysis for the Austrian broadcasting station ORF on election night:

Chart 1: Voter transitions for the 2005 municipal elections in Vienna, in absolute numbers over 1,000 votes

 

SPÖ '05

FPÖ '05

ÖVP '05

Greens '05

BZÖ
'05

Others
'05

Non-voters '05

total
'01

SPÖ '01

230

7

27

7

2

1

76

349

FPÖ '01

27

74

12

4

3

1

29

151

ÖVP '01

23

7

81

5

1

1

5

122

Greens '01

5

0

2

74

0

1

13

95

Others '01

21

1

0

2

0

4

2

30

Non-voters '01

23

12

3

7

2

1

347

395

total '05

329

100

126

98

8

10

472

e.g. Of the 2001 SPÖ supporters, 230,000 voted again for this party, 7,000 voted for the FPÖ, 27,000 voted for the ÖVP, etc.

 

Chart 2: Voter transitions for the 2005 municipal elections in Vienna, in percent

 

SPÖ '05

FPÖ '05

ÖVP '05

Greens '05

BZÖ
'05

Others
'05

Non-voters '05

total
'01

SPÖ '01

66%

2%

8%

2%

0%

0%

22%

100%

FPÖ '01

18%

49%

8%

3%

2%

1%

19%

100%

ÖVP '01

19%

5%

67%

4%

1%

1%

4%

100%

Greens '01

5%

0%

2%

78%

0%

1%

14%

100%

Others '01

68%

2%

1%

8%

1%

14%

6%

100%

Non-voters '01

6%

3%

1%

2%

0%

0%

88%

100%

e.g. Of the 2001 SPÖ supporters, 66% voted again for the SPÖ, 2% voted for the FPÖ, 8% for the ÖVP etc.